From Macro to Micro: How Local Fundamentals Will Define Multifamily in 2026

Rather than broad macro headlines driving decision-making, Mike Aiken emphasizes that local fundamentals will ultimately define multifamily performance in 2026, with interest rates and national policy creating a supportive backdrop but market-by-market dynamics—including supply timing, absorption, job growth, and household formation—separating clear winners from laggards. He points to a “K-shaped” recovery, where markets that peaked earlier in new supply and are regaining balance, such as Houston, are positioned for stronger rent growth, while others like Austin continue to face pressure from elevated deliveries. The takeaway is that operators and investors who prioritize granular, property-level analysis and local economic conditions, rather than relying on broad regional or national narratives, will be best positioned to navigate leasing, pricing, and transaction activity in the year ahead.

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